Ohio State vs. Missouri score prediction by college football expert model

 


Expert score predictions for Ohio State vs. Missouri in the 2023 Cotton Bowl

Part of what makes the college football bowl season so exciting is the chance to witness a thrilling showdown between two powerhouse conferences, the Big Ten and the SEC. This postseason promises not to disappoint, especially with the highly anticipated 2023 Cotton Bowl game. Get ready for an epic clash this Friday night as Ohio State takes on a resurgent Missouri. It's sure to be a game to remember.

Missouri had an impressive season, ranking as the third-best team in the SEC with 10 wins. Credit goes to their skilled offensive lineup, featuring quarterback Brady Cook, receiver Luther Burden, and award-winning tailback Cody Schrader. On the flip side, Ohio State faced challenges, losing for the third time in a row to Michigan and narrowly missing out on the College Football Playoff. Additionally, they're heading into the bowl game with significant losses in key production. It sets the stage for an intriguing matchup.

Now, let's analyze the matchup by delving into the projections from the SP+ prediction model.

Ohio State vs. Missouri prediction

According to the simulations, Ohio State emerges as the favored team to secure a close victory. The SP+ prediction model anticipates a projected score of 29 to 21 in favor of the Buckeyes, with an expected winning margin of 8.9 points. The model assigns a 70 percent likelihood of Ohio State winning the game outright. It sets the stage for an exciting and closely contested matchup between the Buckeyes and the Tigers.

Indeed, the SP+ is a valuable tool in the world of college football. It serves as a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency, aiming to predict game outcomes by assessing the most sustainable and predictable elements of football. This metric provides a nuanced understanding of teams' performance, considering various factors that can influence game dynamics. It adds a sophisticated layer to analyzing and forecasting college football matchups.

How good isit this season? So far, the SP+ model is 381-354-14 (51.8%) in its picksagainst the spread.

Point spread:

In a seesaw battle that's been ongoing since the game kicked off, the current odds peg Ohio State as the favorites by 5 points against Missouri, as per SI Sportsbook. SI has set the total points at 50.5, with Ohio State's Money Line at -210 and Mizzou's at +175.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

•          Ohio State -5

•          OSU to win -210

•          Bet under 50.5 points

Computer prediction:

 Other analytical tools also lean towards the Buckeyes securing victory in the Cotton Bowl. This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer-driven prediction model that crunches data from both teams and runs simulations 20,000 times to make predictions. According to the index, Ohio State is projected to emerge as the winner in 75.9 percent of simulations, with Missouri claiming victory in the remaining 24.1 percent. Factoring in each team's scoring margin per game, the computer forecasts that Ohio State will outscore Missouri by 12.5 points, comfortably covering the spread.

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